dnalogo

SIRMON FAMILY GENEALOGY

S*rm*n Family DNA Project

TMRCA (Using 37-Marker Results): Severn Valley Family


The data in the table below were calculated using the Family Tree DNA Time Predictor (ver. 1.1). The table probabilities were calculated using the Projected Family Haplotype for John (1557) and the results for the individual participants. John is the great-grandson of William (1430) who is first noted in Eldersfield in the Severn Valley of Worcestershire, UK about 1460. The table includes results for the 37-Marker test.


By clicking on the Kit# of the DNA Participant, you may go to the Participant Lineage Index which will allow you to view the ancestry of the participant.

Severn Valley Results: Probabilities for the TMRCA
Family Tree DNA Time Predictor: Ver. 1.1--Participant Results for the 37-Marker Test
Probabillities of sharing the common ancestor John (1557) within the last:
100 yrs 200 yrs 300 yrs 400 yrs 500 yrs 600 yrs
# Kit# 4 gen 8 gen 12 gen 16 gen 20 gen 24 gen
#1 20889 58.66% 88.83% 97.40% 99.44% 99.88% 99.98%
#2 20955 31.77% 72.17% 91.18% 97.57% 99.39% 99.85%
#3 21449 10.89% 44.23% 73.48% 89.41% 96.24% 98.76%
#4 21746 10.31% 42.77% 72.06% 88.51% 95.78% 98.57%
#5 22278 58.85% 88.95% 97.44% 99.45% 99.89% 99.98%
#6 22622 83.49% 97.28% 99.55% 99.93% 99.99% 100.0%
#7 22683 56.46% 87.40% 96.84% 99.26% 99.83% 99.96%
#8 22877 83.49% 97.28% 99.55% 99.93% 99.99% 100.0%
#9 23452 29.07% 68.84% 89.24% 96.75% 99.10% 99.76%
#10 23830 83.49% 97.28% 99.55% 99.93% 99.99% 100.0%
#11 24780 30.98% 71.24% 90.66% 97.36% 99.32% 99.83%
#12 25644 56.46% 87.40% 96.84% 99.26% 99.83% 99.96%
#13 27074 11.43% 45.69% 74.85% 90.26% 96.64% 98.93%
#14 28077 56.46% 87.40% 96.84% 99.26% 99.83% 99.96%
#15 29302 83.49% 97.28% 99.55% 99.93% 99.99% 100.0%
#16 29708 56.46% 87.40% 96.84% 99.26% 99.83% 99.96%
#17 29710 83.49% 97.28% 99.55% 99.93% 99.99% 100.0%
#18 29980 83.49% 97.28% 99.55% 99.93% 99.99% 100.0%
#19 30127 58.66% 88.83% 97.40% 99.44% 99.88% 99.98%
#20 31239 59.32% 89.23% 97.54% 99.48% 99.90% 99.98%
#21 31619 27.83% 67.21% 88.23% 96.29% 98.93% 99.70%
#22 40525 11.74% 46.45% 75.55% 90.67% 96.84% 99.01%
#23 48801 11.05% 44.72% 73.94 89.7% 96.38% 98.82%
#24 59743 83.49% 97.28% 99.55% 99.93% 99.99% 100.0%
#25 60484 31.25% 71.56% 90.84% 97.44% 99.34% 99.84%
#26 77367 83.49% 97.28% 99.55% 99.93% 99.99% 100.0%
#27 99144 83.49% 97.28% 99.55% 99.93% 99.99% 100.0%
Code Mutation Coding: Participant Results for the 37-Marker Test
UK "0" mutations for 37 marker results (37/37--match)
USA "1" mutations for 37 marker results (36/37--match)
"2" mutations for 37 marker results (35/37--match)
"3" mutations for 37 marker results (34/37--match)

Table Explanation
As mentioned, the probabilities in the table above were calculated using the Family Tree DNA Time Predictor provided by Family Tree DNA. The probabilities in the table were calculated between the Projected Family Haplotype for John (1557) and all the other participants from his line. You should note the distinction between "0" mutations (perfect match), "1" mutation, "2" mutations, and "3" mutations. As the number of mutations increases, the probability of a close family relationship decreases.

The idea is to use these probabilities to find the time when participants share a common ancestor (TMRCA). Let us demonstrate how we were able to determine the most recent common ancestor (TMRCA) of the participants from the the Severn Valley to be John (1557)--the great-grandson of William (1430) of Eldersfield. Kit #22877 traces his paper ancestry to John (1557) through John's third son (1592). Kits #22622 #23830, #29302, #29710, and #29980 all trace their ancestry to John (1557) through Edward Sermoner (ca. 1638), the immigrant to Virginia in 1648, through John's first son (1588). The results for all six of these participants show a perfect match--37/37. The probability for TMRCA at twelve generations for these six participants is 99.55%. Kits #22877, #22622 and #23830 are eleven generations from John (1557). Kits #29302 and #29980 are twelve generations from John (1557). Kit #29710 is thirteen generations from John (1557). Therefore, the probability (99.55%) indicates that these six participants all descend from John (1557).

Kit#21449 descends from the Gloucestershire branch of the family (c. 1520), his earliest known ancestor born c. 1500 in Eldersfield. While the current paper trail does not connect him with William of Eldersfield, it is clear from the DNA results that he descends from the same family.

Our initial goal for the project was to try and establish the connection of Edward (1638) to his roots in the UK. During the first year of the project we have been able to accomplish this goal. A second goal was to determine how the different lines connect. As a result of participants upgrading to the 37-Marker test, we have made progress in accomplishing this goal. We now need additional participants to join the project to help document the many different family lines descending from William of Eldersfield.

We invite you to become a participant and find where you fit in the family. If you would like more information about becoming a participant, you may contact the Project Co-Administrator for the UK or the Project Co-Administrator for the USA.